🛒 Retail & Brand Suitability Model

This dashboard visualizes the estimated suitability of different census tracts in and around Oxford, NC for attracting specific retail brands or amenities. The model supports community questions around economic development, annexation, and equitable access to stores.

📌 What This Model Does

• Uses census and employment data to predict areas suitable for brand expansion
• Highlights potential locations for grocery stores, chain retail, or restaurants
• Supports discussion of whether population growth alone attracts amenities

⚙️ How It Works

• Logistic regression model using tract-level ACS + LODES + land use data
• Trained on known brand locations along North Carolina's I-85 corridor, and generalized to Oxford-area tracts
• Factors include income, density, workforce access, renter share, and land use

📍 Explore Brand Suitability Maps

• Harris Teeter Suitability Map

  Likelihood of Harris Teeter expansion based on current demographics, income, and retail proximity.

  🛒 Harris Teeter Brand Suitability Summary

  This section summarizes the logistic regression analysis used to estimate the suitability of census tracts in and around Oxford, NC for the placement of a Harris Teeter grocery store.

  📈 Key Predictors

  • Log Median Income: Strongest positive predictor (2.69)
  • Log Population Density: Positive correlation
  • Road Access Score: Moderate positive effect
  • Share of Low-Wage Jobs: Small positive effect
  • Owner-Occupancy Rate: Negative correlation
  • Commercial Land Share: Minor positive effect

  📊 Optimal Feature Values

  Feature	Value
  Log Median Income	12.26
  Population Density	485.28
  Log Population Density	6.62
  Road Access Score	109,329.56
  Owner-Occupancy	61%
  Mid-Wage Jobs	33%
  Low-Wage Jobs	24%
  Commercial Share	1%
  Commercial Share²	1%
  Entropy	0.06
  Implied Median Income	$211,630

• Food Lion Suitability Map

  Model predicting Food Lion presence based on access, density, and workforce composition.

  🛒 Food Lion Brand Suitability Summary

  Logistic regression analysis identifying key indicators of Food Lion store placement potential around Oxford, NC.

  📈 Key Predictors

  • Log Population Density: Strongest positive predictor (1.38)
  • Road Access Score: Strong positive relationship
  • Entropy: Moderate land mix influence
  • Raw Density: Slightly negative
  • High-Wage Share: Negative association
  • Log Median Income: Mild negative effect

  📊 Optimal Feature Values

  Feature	Value
  Log Median Income	10.79
  Population Density	59.03
  Log Population Density	9.34
  Road Access Score	258,966.46
  Owner-Occupancy	70%
  High-Wage Jobs	38%
  Commercial Share	1%
  Commercial Share²	0%
  Entropy	0.20
  Implied Median Income	$48,503

• ALDI Suitability Map

  Estimated ALDI retail potential in Oxford-area tracts based on workforce, density, and accessibility.

  🛒 ALDI Brand Suitability Summary

  Analysis of factors influencing ALDI expansion in mid-sized towns, using census-based model results.

  📈 Key Predictors

  • Log Population Density: Strongest positive factor (2.57)
  • Road Access Score: Strong influence
  • Population Density: Negative correlation
  • Mid- & Low-Wage Share: Positive signal
  • Land Mix (Entropy): Mildly helpful
  • Commercial Share: Slightly positive

  📊 Optimal Feature Values

  Feature	Value
  Population Density	137.41
  Log Population Density	8.10
  Road Access Score	140,214.42
  Job Density	1.18
  Mid-Wage Jobs	34%
  Low-Wage Jobs	23%
  Commercial Share	1%
  Commercial Share²	0%
  Entropy	0.07

🧪 Why It Matters

This tool complements the displacement risk dashboard by helping policymakers ask:

• Will annexing rooftops attract stores?
• Are high-need areas being overlooked by retailers?
• How do growth patterns intersect with affordability concerns?

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